Read e-book online Models and Projections of Demand in Post-War Britain PDF

By Angus Deaton

ISBN-10: 0412136406

ISBN-13: 9780412136405

ISBN-10: 1489931139

ISBN-13: 9781489931139

The first variety of our prior sequence, A Programme for development, carried a observe of coming near near papers. 5 have been introduced yet finally in basic terms 4 have been released. The 5th, which used to be meant to house intake features, by no means seemed; now it takes its position as no 1 within the new sequence. it's not that ten years in the past we had not anything to claim with reference to shoppers' behaviour. The crude estimation strategy that I had utilized in my unique (1954) paper at the linear expenditure method gave fascinating and in lots of respects passable effects, a few of which have been released outdoor our sequence, for example in Stone, Brown and ). With this technique the parameter estimates replaced Rowe ( 1964 little or no after the 1st few iterations. however they did swap, and with the computing assets then at our disposal we did not achieve convergence. It used to be in general hence that we determined to wait.

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1) where b is a vector and B is a matrix, each of constant parameters. A superimposed circumflex denotes a vector diagonalized into a matrix whose off-diagonal terms are zero. 1 ), aggregation, homogeneity, symmetry, and negativity. The first two of these pose little difficulty. , t'pq = = p'q t'bll + t'Bp = IJ.. 3) 0'. 1) are already linear homogeneous; proportional changes in p and /l clearly involve no change in q. 1) with respect to p to give . aq + q. 5) pap giving, aq = ap ·-tB P ·-t. -p q.

N)- 1 1VI. 15) also implies that Vis non-singular. 19). L = T ! T{log K. + log n- (n -1) log 2rr -log det V}-! 17) gives a formula for the logarithm of the likelihood of a sample with the residuals et. The estimation problem thus reduces to seeking values of the parameters, in this case, b 0 , b 1 and c, which will maximize the value of this expression. In general, however, precise values for n, and thus for V, are not known. In practice, the situation will vary from the case where nothing is known to the case where the structure of the matrix can be deduced from theoretical considerations.

What is required is a much more flexible search procedure and we go on to discuss possible candidates below. 37) are derived from the differentiation of the logarithmic likelihood function, for any values of the parameters, the left-hand side can be used to evaluate the gradient vector of the function. This is useful information since it may be a good indicator of the direction of the maximum. One possible algorithm is then to proceed in this direction with a step length linked to the steepness of the slope.

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Models and Projections of Demand in Post-War Britain by Angus Deaton


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